Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has six bets at York (the opening day of the Ebor Festival), Wolverhampton and Kempton on Wednesday, August 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GIS A SUB (system – Kevin Ryan & Kevin Stott, first-time cheekpieces, handicaps)
I’ve fired off a few arrows at this race, including at Kevin Ryan’s GIS A SUB who sports the cheekpieces for the first time. Since the beginning of 2010, Ryan and jockey Kevin Stott have a ten from 40 record with handicappers in this headgear and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £53.33 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners, based on their odds, was only 4.7). Twelve of the beaten horses made the frame and an each-way approach is advised. His stall 7 of 22 draw could be advantageous and he was backed from 33-1 into 20-1 on Tuesday evening.
EL BODEGON (system – Great Voltigeur Stakes, beaten in a Group 1 or Group 2 last time out)
This Group 2 contest has not been a good race for last-time out winners, with only two of the 27 qualifiers successful in the past ten years. Backing them all would have resulted in a loss of £21.60 to a £1 stake. In the same period, backing those who were beaten in a Group 1 or Group 2 contest last time would have found six winners from 19 bets for a profit of £17.50. EL BODEGON, third in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last time, is this year’s sole qualifier and could be worth a small interest with Hollie Doyle taking the ride. Any rain will aid his cause.
POWER ON (system – Power progeny at Wolverhampton)
Progeny of the sire Power have a great record on Wolverhampton’s Tapeta surface, landing 24 of their 141 starts (17% strike-rate) for a profit of £104.47 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 13.24). POWER ON has a tough draw to overcome and has only won once from ten previous visits to Dunstall Park, but he caught the eye against the pace bias when sixth over course and distance last time. It was incredibly difficult to come from off the pace that day – high temperatures melt the wax that binds the track together, creating clouds of kickback – but with rain forecast the track should ride very differently and he can reward each-way support.
AL GAIYA (system – Olymoic Glory progeny, all-weather, not Polytrack)
Backing all progeny of the sire Olympic Glory on Tapeta or Fibresand would have found 17 winners from 97 bets for a profit of £129.99 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 11.46). AL GAIYA has yet to contribute to those profits but she caught the eye when third at Southwell last time, doing best of those to raced prominently, and is worth an each-way punt.
ROGUE SPIRIT (system – nursery debut, Class 2, turf, highest career speed figure)
Plenty of juveniles improve for the switch to handicap company for the first time but the clock suggests that Tom Clover’s ROGUE SPIRIT doesn’t need do, as he has the best speed figure in the race according to Proform’s ratings. Nursery debutants, running in Class 2 company on turf, who come out top on Proform’s figures have a 27 from 105 record since the start of 2011 for a profit of £42.73 (expected winners only 17.35). The gelding has form figures of 12133 (2-5) and his prominent running style will be an asset.
PEACE OF MINE (system – George Boughey, last time out winners, recent run)
George Boughey has a fine record with last time out winners who are asked to follow up within three weeks of their latest outing. In non-handicaps only, 14 of the 35 qualifiers have scored for a profit of £46.11 (expected winners only 9.11). PEACE OF MINE made a winning debut at Salisbury last week, despite racing freely, and can maintain her 100% record.
Other Horse Racing Tips
Placepot Tips – Tuesday 16th August
Each-Way Betting Tip – Tuesday 16th August
Andy Newton’s Lucky 15 Horse Racing Tips – Tuesday 16th August
Daily Horse Racing Betting Tips – Tuesday 16th August
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Tuesday 16th August
Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Tuesday 16th August
Today’s Horse Racing NAP
York Ebor Festival Tips and Trends – Wednesday 17th August
Juddmonte International Tips and Trends – Wednesday 17th August
York Racing Free Bets & Ebor Festival Betting Offers – Day One
New Customers – Bet £20 & Get £60 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £60 in free bets after betting £20. Here are all the details:
- New customers must stake a minimum amount of £20 on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1.5 (1/2).
- A maximum of 4 x £10 and 4 x £5 free bets credited when a qualifying bet on selected events is settled.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and not returned with winnings.
- This promotion is available between 15/08/22 and 21/08/22. Further terms and conditions apply.