Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew heads to Salisbury and the Racing League action at Lingfield for four recommended bets on Thursday, August 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CRÈME CHANTILLY (system – New Bay 2yos, 7f+, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay prefer turf to the all-weather and come into their own when stepping up from sprint trips. Had we backed all those running over 7f on turf, in Britain and Ireland, we’d have won 26 of our 107 bets and made a profit of £41.83 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 14.53). The racecourse debutants were ten from 38 for a profit of £41.50 and Michael Bell’s newcomer CREME CHANTILLY might be able to cause a minor upset.
SILENT FLAME (system – Racing League flops, dropping in class)
Horses who disappointed in a Racing League contest on their latest start, finishing sixth or worse, often makes good bets when dropped to Class 4 or lower level for their next outing. Since the Racing League’s inception last summer, 13 of the 99 qualifiers won for a profit of £48.88 to the usual £1 stake. Rod Millman’s SILENT FLAME was far from disgraced in a Class 4 Racing League contest at Doncaster last week, finishing a 16-1 eighth of 13, and will find today’s company more suitable. This track will also be more to her liking, her three runs here having produced two wins, including this race 12 months ago (when getting the three-year-old weight for age allowance), and a narrow third.
POSTMARK (system – Milton Harris, first-time tongue-tie in handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2010, Milton Harris is five from 23 with handicappers in a first-time tongue-tie for a profit of £14.50 and POSTMARK looks very interesting in this Racing League contest under Frankie Dettori. The three-year-old was a winner in first-time blinkers for Ralph Beckett earlier this month and has since changed hands for £50,000.
RED OCTOBER (system – time of year)
RED OCTOBER tends to perform best in July and August, recording form figures of 1011221 (4-7) for a profit of £11.30. Both runner-up efforts came when 11-1 and he might be able to reward each-way support.
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