Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew heads to Newmarket, Lingfield and Ayr for his five selections on Saturday, August 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWMARKET 1.20
MAGICAL SUNSET (system – Amo Racing newcomers)
Newcomers owned by Amo Racing have a 22 from 97 record for a profit of £21.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. MAGICAL SUNSET cost 340,000euros as a yearling and might provide a spot of value against Charlie Appleby’s ELEGANT CHARM (forecast to start as the 13-8 favourite) in this 7f fillies’ maiden.
NEWMARKET 1.55
KILLYBEGS WARRIOR (system – Charlie & Mark Johnston, July Course handicaps)
The Johnston yard has traditionally done well in handicaps on the July Course at Newmarket and had we simply bet all their Newmarket handicap runners from June to August in the past ten years (this includes some runners on the Rowley Mile when that course was used in the summer of 2020 because of the COVID-delayed start to the season) we’d have won 71 of our 362 bets (19.6% strike-rate) and made a profit of £75.51. Those who had raced within the past four weeks and led or raced prominently on their most recent start were 53 from 236 (22.5%) for a profit of £96.56. KILLYBEGS WARRIOR won over course and distance on his debut before a close-up third under a penalty at Haydock. He looks well drawn in stall 1 on his nursery debut and can return to winning ways.
NEWMARKET 4.20
STAR OF ORION (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2016, Ralph Beckett is 19 from 85 with his first-time blinkered runners and backing them all would have returned a profit of £76.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. STAR OF ORION hasn’t built on his solid effort in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in two subsequent starts but the headgear could make the difference.
LINGFIELD 5.00
RICHARD P SMITH (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+, Flat)
Progeny of the sire Belardo tend to improve from age three and when given a trip of at least 1m, landing 47 of their 297 Flat starts (15.8% strike-rate) under these conditions for a profit of £68.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. RICHARD P SMITH missed the break and was switched to race on the ‘dead’ rail here last time, doing well to finish within three-quarters of a length of the winner. Stall 1 is a slight concern but, assuming he’s ridden patiently, Marco Ghiani will have to switch him off the rail to challenge and he looks to have plenty in hand today.
AYR 7.15
THANKUAPPRECIATEIT (system – Fountain Of Youth, good or faster turf, recent run)
Progeny of the sire Fountain Of Youth do well on good/faster turf when returned to the track within four weeks of their latest start, winning 31 of their 197 starts (15.7%) for a huge profit of £327.38 to a £1 stake. THANKUAPPRECIATEIT was a big eyecatcher when an 80-1 fifth of 15 at Thirsk on his debut and was unlucky when 16-1 at Ayr next time, meeting trouble when a three-quarters of a length third of 15. He can go two places better tonight.
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