Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew found Ascot winner CLOCHETTE on Friday and has six stats-based selections on Saturday, July 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWCASTLE 1.00
VIRGO (system – Sea The Stars, Newcastle all-weather)
Progeny of sire Sea The Stars do exceptionally well on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle, landing 33 of their 116 starts (28.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £47.85 (expected winners = 27.34). VIRGO is a six-race maiden, but his best effort (a half-length defeat) came over course and distance in December and he’s taken to defy a break of 192 days.
NEWMARKET 1.27
HIGHBANK (system – Kingman colts, 2yo debut, turf, 7f+)
Progeny of the sire Kingman have a great record on their racecourse debuts, especially the juvenile colts who are running over trips of 7f or further on turf. Had we backed all 62 qualifiers we’d have found 18 winners (29% strike-rate) and made a profit of £79.45. Nostrum, a 13-2 winner at Sandown earlier this week, has already done this column a favour and. Hopefully, Charlie Appleby’s HIGHBANK can follow suit.
ASCOT 3.35
TORQUATOR TASSO (system – Alderflug, Flat turf or bumpers)
Progeny of the sire Alderflug have a great record in turf Flat races (including National Hunt Flat races) in Britain and Ireland, landing seven of their 24 starts for a profit of £27.38. Last year’s Arc winner TORUQUATOR TASSO has seasonal debut figures of 446 (0-3) but, once he’s had a run, his record stands at 1231212111 (6-10), with the third place coming after a two-month break. He won well at Hamburg three weeks ago and can be backed to win and finish second in an Exacta to strong favourite WESTOVER.
LINGFIELD 5.08
WANNABE BETSY (system – Siyouni, Polytrack, 4yo+)
Progeny of the sire Siyouni need time to mature, and they also have a good record on Polytrack. Backing all those aged four or older at the four Polytrack venues in Britain/Ireland – Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton and Lingfield – would have found 37 winners from 174 bets (21.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £78.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. WANNABE BETSY contributed with a 25-1 course and distance victory on her stable debut five weeks ago and can follow up.
ASCOT 5.20
LIVE IN THE MOMENT (system – time of year)
LIVE IN THE MOMENT tends to come good in high summer and his handicap record in June, July or August reads 1211132848 (4-10) for a profit of £19.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. He beat only one home at Sandown last time but could never get involved form his wide draw and ran better than his finishing position implies. Rain wouldn’t go amiss but he’s a big price (around 14-1) and Hollie Doyle is a positive booking.
LINGFIELD 5.40
MASHKUUR (system – Jane Chapple-Hyam, second run for the yard, handicaps)
MASHKUUR was 150-1 when beating only a couple home at Newmarket earlier this month on his first start sine leaving Stuart Williams for Jane Chapple-Hyam but should do better this time, as his trainer has a solid record at the second time of asking with stable switchers, scoring with 16 of the 86 handicap runners since 2010 for a profit of £45.93. That stable debut came in a Class 2 handicap, and he drops to Class 4 level today.
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