NFL Week 18 typically sees a mix and match of motivations, with high-flying teams already turning their attention to the postseason while others have nothing left to play for.
Despite some teams’ perceived notion of being ‘dead in the water’, it is interesting to note that since 1990, teams already eliminated who are playing sides in need of a win in the final two game weeks have a favourable 61.9% win rate against the spread.
There are only three instances of this taking place in Week 18 of this season, but that could spell danger for the likes of Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Ahead of what promises to be a scintillating final game week, we are taking a comprehensive look at some of match-ups in the 16-game slate and what is still at stake in the climax of the regular season, along with the latest NFL betting odds and some of our very own picks.
NFL Week 18 Predictions, Picks and Odds
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders – NFL Week 18
A win for Kansas at the Raiders on Saturday would cement their top seed status in the AFC, and with Las Vegas holding no ambitions for this final regular season game, the Chiefs faithful are expectant.
The hosts registered a big showing against the 49ers in Week 17, putting up 34 points but still succumbing to an agonising defeat in overtime. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham threw for 365 yards, scored three touchdowns and claimed two interceptions – if he can fire on all cylinders once again the total points spread for this match-up should be a comfortable pick, with Kansas scoring over 24 points in each of their last eight.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills – NFL Week 18
This is one of a handful of games with huge implications – Super Bowl betting favourites Buffalo Bills will be vying for seeding, while their final regular season opponents the Patriots have the opportunity to sneak into the play-offs should they claim an unlikely victory against the best defence in the NFL.
Damar Hamlin’s collapse will have shaken Buffalo to core and the preparation heading into this final game will not have been ideal, but with their teammate in recovery they will be eager to go out and grab the win.
The last time these sides met was just over a month ago in Massachusetts, where the Bills ran out eventual 24-10 victors – since then, New England have won just once in four games, and as a result, we are expecting the Bills to cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears – NFL Week 18
Despite charging to the top of the NFC North this season with 12 wins, the Vikings have taken the foot off the gas slightly in the run-up to the final game week, losing to the Lions in mid-December before conceding 101 points in their previous three games.
Nevertheless, Minnesota come up against a Chicago Bears side who have had a torrid term this year having gone 3-for-13, losing all of their previous nine games and it would be a huge upset should they manage to muster enough quality to end the season with a flourish.
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins – NFL Week 18
The New York Jets are already out of the conversation when it comes to the postseason, but the same can not be said for the Dolphins who have to win, and hope the Patriots lose, if they are to secure a play-off berth.
The Jets are unfortunate in that they are pitted against the strongest cohort of any division in the NFL, and their commendable defensive unit could be the cause for frustration in the final game week with the Dolphins expected to line-up with seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback.
They should have enough just to edge this contest with New York entering this weekend with no incentive, but we are tipping a relatively low-scoring game.
Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks – NFL Week 18
Seattle will need the Lions to beat the Packers, and find a way past the Rams themselves if they are to punch their ticket for a place in the play-offs.
LA have struggled offensively the season, putting up just 291 points which is the least in the NFC, but a spirited defeat in the reverse of this fixture which finish 27-23 back at the start of December could makes this a little too close for comfort for the Seahawks.
We do expect them to turn up the heat against a Rams defence that conceded 31 points against the Chargers in Week 17 and grab an all-important victory to give themselves hope, but our pick goes for the over total points set at 41.5.
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