It is almost impossible to dominate every game in soccer, as it heavily depends on the level of the opposition, the players available, and even the playing conditions. So, ideally, the aim should not only be to dominate, it should be to take every chance that presents itself.
Thanks to data from CIES Football Observatory, we have a list of the top seven teams in the top five European leagues that have handsomely outperformed their xG (expected goals) until the cutoff date of March 12, 2024. Here are the seven most efficient teams in the best European leagues in the 2023-24 season:
Special Note: We have only considered non-penalty goals.
#7 Borussia Monchengladbach (Bundesliga): xG Difference – 0.28
German side Borussia Monchengladbach averaged 1.64 goals per Bundesliga game until March 12, 2024 — 0.28 higher than their xG of 1.36. Monchengladbach had a respectable 12.64 attempts on goal and 4.32 shots on target.
Gerardo Seoane’s side, however, are the lowest-ranked team to feature on this list. Amassing only 28 points from 26 games, they are in 12th place in the Bundesliga standings. They have scored 46 goals in the league thus far and conceded 50.
#6 Valencia (La Liga): xG Difference – 0.34
La Liga outfit Valencia scored 1.04 goals in the Spanish top flight until March 12, 0.34 more than their xG (0.7). Historically top four challengers Valencia have failed to impress with their attacking display this season, averaging only 8.74 shots and 2.93 on-target attempts. No team on this list have had poorer returns.
Valencia have scored 32 goals and conceded just as many in 28 La Liga matches, so far. With 40 points on the board, they are toiling in eighth place in the rankings.
#5 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga): xG Difference – 0.35
Arguably the most impressive team in all of Europe, Bayer Leverkusen have outperformed their xG by 0.35/game in the 2023-24 Bundesliga season. Xabi Alonso‘s men scored 2.40 goals per game until March 12 — 0.35 more than their xG of 2.05. They have also been quite trigger-happy, notching 16.40 shots and 6.32 on-target efforts.
Leverkusen, the only unbeaten team in Europe so far, have scored a total of 66 goals in 26 matches. The Bundesliga leaders currently have a 10-point lead over Bayern Munich at the top of the table.
#4 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga): xG Difference – 0.36
One of the most formidable teams in Europe, Bayern Munich are fourth in the rankings. The Bavarians clocked an average of 2.80 non-penalty goals until March 12 — 0.36 higher than their xG.
Thomas Tuchel’s side recorded an average of 18.12 shots per game until the cut-off date, but only 7.13 of those attempts were on target. Given the firepower at Bayern’s disposal, they would probably be disappointed with the frequency of the shots that end up on target.
So far, Bayern has played 26 Bundesliga matches, scoring 78 goals and amassing a total of 60 points.
#3 Arsenal (Premier League): xG Difference – 0.43
Premier League leaders Arsenal have been on the money this season, finding the back of the net with admirable frequency. As per CIES’ data, the Gunners have scored an average of 2.21 non-penalty goals per game until Matchday 28, exceeding their xG (1.78) by 0.43. Arsenal have averaged 15.42 shots per game and tested the keeper 5.54 times.
Including penalty goals, Arsenal have scored 70 goals in the Premier League so far. In their last league encounter on March 9, the north Londoners claimed a 2-1 victory over Brentford.
#2 Inter Milan (Serie A): xG Difference – 0.44
Inter Milan are flying in Serie A this season, opening up a 14-point lead at the top of the league rankings. The credit for their success goes to their impeccable efficiency, with them scoring an average of 2.14 goals until Matchday 28. Their xG, meanwhile, was at 1.70.
The Nerazzurri had an average of 14 shots per game, with 4.93 of those landing on target. They have scored 71 goals in Serie A so far and conceded just 14.
#1 AS Roma (Serie A): xG Difference – 0.52
Serie A outfit AS Roma scored 1.61 goals per game until the cutoff date, outperforming their xG (1.09) by a whopping 0.52. They have the second-lowest shooting average as well as shot-on-target metric, with them clocking only 10.86 shots per game and landing 3.64 shots on target.
Roma, who recently parted ways with manager Jose Mourinho have not been at their best this season. Picking up 51 points from 29 matches, they are fifth in the Serie A rankings. So far, they have scored 55 goals and conceded 35.
